Oral Programme UC2

Climate modelling, climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to century
Convener: C. Appenzeller 
Co-Conveners: C.M. Goodess , C. Schär , R.E. Benestad 

Session Details

Poster Programme

Monday, 13 Sep 2010 Room: AudiMax (F30)
	Monthly to Seasonal Prediction
16:30–16:45	EMS2010-289 Autumn-time response of the ocean-atmospheric system to interannual changes in Arctic sea-ice extent Y. J. Orsolini, R. Senan, R. E. Benestad, A. Melsom, and M. A. Balmaseda
16:45–17:00	EMS2010-746 ENSO-Driven Predictability of Tropical Dry Autumns Using the Seasonal ENSEMBLES Multimodel R. Manzanas, J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Cofiño, and M.D. Frías
17:00–17:15	EMS2010-79 Seasonal potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice in the ENSEMBLES and CMIP3 simulations M. Chevallier and D. Salas-Melia
17:15–17:30	EMS2010-373 Evolution of the Canadian regional ensemble prediction system R. Frenette, M. Charron, X. Li, N. Gagnon, C. Lavaysse, S. Belair, M. Carrera, P. Yau, and G. Candille
17:30–17:45	EMS2010-349 Analysis of MJO forecast errors in a seamless system (withdrawn) P. Xavier and A. Shelly
17:45–18:00	EMS2010-536 Assessing two operational systems for monthly and seasonal climatic anomalies forecast in Italy. M. Pasqui, V. Pavan, S. Quaresima, J. Primicerio, C. Cacciamani, B. Gozzini, and L. Perini
18:00–18:15	EMS2010-397 Dynamic-enforced Statistical Downscaling of Global Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation for Regional Hydrological Applications Y. Liu, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, A. Givati, W. Wu, G. Descombes, M. Ge, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin
18:15–18:30	EMS2010-326 Can monthly to seasonal precipitation forecasts be useful for hydro-power production planning in french Guyana ? L. Dubus, J. Najac, and J. Dessagne
Wednesday, 15 Sep 2010 Room: AudiMax (F30)
	Climate Change Impacts
08:30–08:45	EMS2010-565 Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves E.M. Fischer and C. Schär
08:45–09:00	EMS2010-52 Using bias-adjustment to improve the use of high-resolution climate model output S. Corney, G. Holz, J. Bennett, M. Grose, C.J. White, S. Gaynor, and N.L. Bindoff
09:00–09:15	EMS2010-146 Fire Weather Index : from high resolution climatology to Climate change impact study E. Cloppet and M. Regimbeau
09:15–09:30	EMS2010-681 Water deficit risk in Central Europe in the middle of the 21st century J. Wibig
09:30–09:45	EMS2010-722 Simulation of Annual Snowfall over Colorado using a High Resolution Mesoscale Model and some Impacts of Climate Change using the Pseudo Climate Simulation Method R. Rasmussen and V. Grubisic
09:45–10:00	EMS2010-199 Seasonal changes in the regional hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes in an aggressive mitigation scenario compared to SRES A1B H. Huebener, I. Höschel, J. Körber, M. Sanderson, T.C. Johns, J.-F. Royer, D. Salas y Melia, E. Roeckner, M. Giorgetta, and E. Manzini
10:00–10:15	EMS2010-602 Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator M. Hirschi, S. Stöckli, M. Dubrovsky, C. Spirig, M. W. Rotach, P. Calanca, and J. Samietz
10:15–10:30	EMS2010-432 Assessment of Future Storm Losses in Germany: Probabilistic Extension of the Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling Approach K. Born, M.K. Karremann, P. Ludwig, and J. Pinto
Coffee Break
	Climate Scenarios and Long-Term Changes
11:00–11:15	EMS2010-642 Aerosol emissions and earth radiation balance in transient GCM simulations D. Folini and M. Wild
11:15–11:30	EMS2010-133 The impact of doubled CO2 on winter ENSO teleconnections I. Herceg Bulić, Č. Branković, and F. Kucharski
11:30–11:45	EMS2010-269 Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory X. Zhu, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich, and Z. Liu
11:45–12:00	EMS2010-307 The West African Monsoon in the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM S. Kothe and B. Ahrens
12:00–12:15	EMS2010-327 Evaluation of the Indian monsoon generated by four regional climate models during the period 1981-2000 P. Lucas-Picher, J. Christensen, P. Kumar, F. Saeed, S. Asharaf, A. Wiltshire, B. Ahrens, and S. Hagemann
12:15–12:30	EMS2010-249 Regional climate projections of trends and variability in the Indian summer monsoon A. Dobler and B. Ahrens
12:30–12:45	EMS2010-428 The effects of climate change on the number of cold spells in the Alps C. Cassardo, M. Galli, S. M. Oh, and S. K. Park
12:45–13:00	EMS2010-99 Elevation Gradients of 21st Century European Climate Change S. Kotlarski, D. Lüthi, P. Pall, and C. Schär
Thursday, 16 Sep 2010 Room: AudiMax (F30)
14:00–14:30	EMS2010-246 Risks of model weighting in multi-model climate projections - lessons learnt from seasonal forecasting (solicited) A.P. Weigel, R. Knutti, M.A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller
14:30–14:45	EMS2010-786 High Resolution Regional Climate Modelling - Lessons Learned from EC FP6 Project CECILIA T. Halenka, M. Belda, and J. Miksovsky
14:45–15:00	EMS2010-607 Evaluation of the regional climate model REMO over several CORDEX domains throughout the globe A. Elizalde, A. Haensler, P. Kumar, R. Podzun, D. Rechid, A. Remedio, F. Saeed, K. Sieck, C. Teichmann, C. Wilhelm and the REMO Team
15:00–15:15	EMS2010-209 Regional Climate Simulation (1989-2009) with WRF in the CORDEX-Europe Domain J. Chu, K Warrach-Sagi, V Wulfmeyer, T Schwitalla, and H Bauer
15:15–15:30	EMS2010-299 Dynamical downscaling of the ERA-40 reanalysis and ARPEGE GCM with the WRF regional climate model in complex terrain in Norway - comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik, and A. Sorteberg
15:30–15:45	EMS2010-558 Calculation of Probabilistic Climate Change Scenarios for Switzerland A. M. Fischer, A. P. Weigel, M. A. Liniger, C. Buser, and C. Appenzeller
15:45–16:00	EMS2010-60 The future climate characteristics of the Carpathian Basin based on a regional climate model mini-ensemble G. Szépszó, J. Bartholy, G. Csima, A. Horányi, A. Hunyady, I. Krüzselyi, I. Pieczka, R. Pongrácz, P. Szabó, and Cs. Torma
Poster Session & Coffee Break
17:00–17:15	EMS2010-63 Downscaling Precipitation Extremes: Correction of Analog Models through PDF Predictions R.E. Benestad
17:15–17:30	EMS2010-576 Statistical downscaling assessments of temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area E. Hertig, J. Jacobeit, and S. Fernandez-Montes
17:30–17:45	EMS2010-447 Forcing the statistical regionalization method WETTREG with large scale models of different resolution: A sensitivity study A. Spekat, S. Baumgart, F. Kreienkamp, and W. Enke
17:45–18:00	EMS2010-13 Very high resolution climate modelling of extremes E. Kendon and K. Williams
18:00–18:15	EMS2010-259 Downscaling of extreme precipitation events under climate change conditions M. Hofstätter, C. Matulla, and J. Wang
18:15–18:30	EMS2010-2 The effect of large-scale nudging on climate indices in the Regional Climate Model CCLM M. Demuzere, I. Anders, E. Jaeger, E. Brisson, and N.P.M. van Lipzig
18:30–18:45	EMS2010-17 Strengthening regional climate change projections of rainfall changes through fine-scale dynamical downscaling modelling and analyses of climate drivers at all scales M.R. Grose, S Corney, J Bennett, C.J. White, G.K. Holz, and N.L. Bindoff
18:45–19:00	EMS2010-735 Validation of autocorrelations and higher-order statistical moments of surface temperature simulated by statistical downscaling and regional climate models on a dense grid over central Europe R. Huth, J. Mikšovský, J.C. Moliba, P. Štěpánek, and Z. Chládová